Amazon Already Has Enough Satellites to Activate the Leo Network: Ready to Challenge Starlink

Amazon has announced that its constellation, Amazon Leo (the successor to what was once known as Project Kuiper), has reached a total of 396 operational satellites in low Earth orbit, a number the company deems sufficient to finally activate the service. This was stated by Chris Weber, Vice President of Amazon Leo responsible for business and product, after the latest launch that brought the network above the threshold deemed necessary to ensure continuous coverage. The company remains aligned with its declared goal of making the service commercially available by mid-2026.

However, this milestone should be viewed with caution. Weber mentions 'continuous coverage at initial latitudes,' a phrase that implies service areas are still limited compared to the final promise of global connectivity. Those who sign up as early users of Leo should therefore expect immature performance as they wait for new launches to increase capacity and coverage.

The Starlink Precedent Teaches Caution
The history of Starlink provides a tricky but instructive benchmark. SpaceX launched its 'Better than nothing beta' in 2020 when it had nearly 900 satellites in low Earth orbit. Initially, the service covered a narrow band between northern United States and Canada, with users reporting frequent interruptions, high sensitivity to physical obstacles, and speeds between 50 and 150 Mbps, with latency between 20 and 40 milliseconds. By 2022, the coverage and quality of service had improved significantly.

Today, SpaceX's constellation has over 10,000 active satellites and provides connectivity to more than 160 countries across terrestrial, maritime, and aerial services. Performance varies based on the type of antenna, pricing plan, time, and user location, but the average now stands at 200 Mbps in download, 10 to 40 Mbps in upload, and latency around 25 milliseconds. This is the benchmark, extremely difficult to reach in the short term, with which Amazon will have to contend.

To reach comparable numbers, it will likely take Amazon years: the plan calls for a final constellation of 3,232 satellites, and currently, the company is falling behind schedule, partly due to Blue Origin's struggles in scaling up the reusable New Glenn launcher. Official updates from Amazon nevertheless confirm that the Atlas V rocket from ULA has done its part, successfully launching 224 of the current satellites with a 100% success rate, according to Melissa Wuerl, head of Amazon Leo's launch systems.

With the last Atlas V flight now archived, Amazon prepares to transition to the larger Vulcan rocket to accelerate the launch pace: the company has already secured over 100 future missions. It remains to be seen if this strategy will be enough to close the gap with a competitor that, after six years of lead, has already transformed satellite broadband access into a mature and global market.