The first quantum computers useful at an industrial level in 5-7 years, according to Amazon

Just a couple of years ago, predictions suggested it would take twenty years before we saw the first quantum computer capable of delivering interesting results from a commercial and industrial perspective. With technological development advancing by leaps and bounds, estimates have been more than halved, and now Peter DeSantis, head of the newly established division dedicated to AI and quantum computing at Amazon, stated that we will see the first quantum computers with commercial applications in the next 5-7 years.

Quantum computers are progressing rapidly

"I really believe that, over the next 5-7 years, we will begin to see the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers. Following that, we will see something that resembles Moore's Law, whereby they will become larger each year and be able to tackle increasingly interesting problems," DeSantis said in an interview with the U.S. broadcaster CNBC.

"One of the misconceptions [that circulates] is that quantum computers will be faster computers, but that is not the case at all. Quantum computers will solve particular types of problems that are not easily addressed today by a classical computer, and they will do so much better," DeSantis stated.

"The problems I think will be tackled first are those based on quantum physics, so areas like chemistry, materials science, and fundamental physics. There are problems today for which we cannot perform sufficiently faithful simulations with a classical computer, but once we have a quantum computer we will see tangible progress."

Amazon is not the only one predicting relatively rapid progress for quantum computing. Microsoft estimates that its first commercially useful device will arrive in 2029; QuEra in 2028; IBM's plans talk about 2029, while those of the French company Pasqal and Google target 2030.

The acceleration that the entire sector seems to be experiencing is significant, and there seems to be a consensus among companies that the timelines for seeing the first devices with a real impact will be relatively short. Where more time will likely be needed is in developing quantum computers powerful enough to break the public-key cryptography we currently use: although research continues to make progress in this field as well, it will probably take over a decade before we reach that point.