DRAM, out-of-control demand: production will only cover 60% by 2027

The DRAM memory market will continue to face a prolonged phase of imbalance between supply and demand, with effects likely to impact multiple segments, starting with consumer electronics. Recent analyses indicate that, despite investments in new production capabilities, the industry will not be able to fully meet global demand for several more years. According to estimates reported by Nikkei Asia, by the end of 2027, producers will only manage to cover about 60% of the overall demand for DRAM. This figure reflects the pressure from the expansion of data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence, which are increasingly hungry for high-performance memory.

The main players in the industry - Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron - are expanding production capacity with new factories and lines, but much of this will not come online until 2027-2028. In the meantime, production is increasingly oriented towards high-margin solutions like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is crucial for AI accelerators and cloud infrastructure. This strategic choice has direct consequences: supplies of traditional DRAM for PCs, smartphones, and other devices are becoming more limited. Several manufacturers have progressively phased out "legacy" technologies such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, further exacerbating the pressure on the consumer market supply.

To rebalance the market, an annual production increase of around 12% between 2026 and 2027 would be necessary. However, forecasts from Counterpoint Research indicate a much more modest increase of about 7.5%. This gap makes normalization in the short term unlikely. Complicating the picture is also the order dynamics: major data center operators are booking entire annual production volumes well in advance, further reducing availability in the open market and contributing to rising prices.

The consequences have been visible for months, and even in recent weeks: the increase in memory costs is reflected in a wide range of products that are rising in price, from laptops like Microsoft's Surface to VR headsets like Meta's Quest.

Prospects do not indicate an imminent improvement, with some estimates suggesting a possible stabilization only towards the end of 2028. There are even more pessimistic assessments: according to the president of SK Group, the shortage phase could extend to as late as 2030, highlighting how the transition to an economy increasingly driven by artificial intelligence is redefining the production priorities of the entire sector.