United States, AI Chip Exports Slow Down: Fewer Personnel and More Controls Hinder NVIDIA and AMD

The system for controlling AI chip exports in the United States is progressing very slowly. According to reports from Bloomberg, the office of the Department of Commerce responsible for approving licenses for AI accelerators from companies like NVIDIA and AMD is facing a significant decline in personnel, directly affecting approval times.

The central issue lies with the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), which has reportedly lost 101 employees since 2024, equating to a 19% reduction in workforce. The turnover among staff dedicated to defining regulations and managing licenses is even more pronounced, approaching 20%. This downsizing occurs amidst increasing operational complexity, exacerbated by the expansion of checks on tariffs and AI technologies.

Contributing to the slowness of the procedures is also the approach of Undersecretary of Commerce Jeffrey Kessler, who, according to sources, is personally reviewing much of the requests, inviting companies to contact him directly to speed up the process. This centralization, combined with the staff shortage, risks becoming a bottleneck.

Meanwhile, other geopolitical priorities are draining internal resources. Since the end of February, BIS executives have reportedly been heavily engaged in managing the implications related to the conflict with Iran, diverting attention from technology export policies. The topic is likely to resurface in the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where AI chip access and rare earth supplies will be discussed.

The consequences are directly reflected in the market. Despite the political green light for sales, NVIDIA has reportedly not yet delivered NVIDIA H200 GPUs to China after several months, despite having already received orders. Delays in BIS approvals appear to be the main limiting factor. Similarly, approvals for AMD MI308 solutions follow the same slowed process.

Further complications emerge on the Middle Eastern front. Licenses granted to Cerebras and NVIDIA for exports to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates impose investment requirements in the U.S. equivalent to the value of the supplies. This constraint necessitates case-by-case negotiations, further increasing the administrative burden.

The result is a significant extension of average processing times: in the first half of 2025, it reached 76 days for a license application, compared to the average of 38 days in 2023. This figure reflects not only the staff reduction but also the increasing regulatory and geopolitical complexity.

The latest official report from the BIS dates back to 2023, when the agency managed about 38,000 annual requests with an approval rate of 85%. The lack of updated data for 2024 and 2025 makes it difficult for producers to accurately estimate approval times today, increasing uncertainty throughout the advanced semiconductor supply chain.