SpaceX, a Falcon 9 stage will crash on the Moon in August: when to watch the event

The trajectory is now defined, and the scientific community has begun preparations for an unprecedented observational campaign. On August 5, 2026, around 08:35 CEST, the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will crash on the Moon. The impact will occur in a Sunlit area near the Einstein Crater, located on the eastern edge of the visible disc from Earth.

Cataloged as 2025-010D, the abandoned component dates back to the mission launched in January 2025 to place two private robotic landers into orbit. Once the initial thrust was completed, the stage ran out of fuel without being able to execute a controlled re-entry maneuver into the Earth's atmosphere or a push into deep space, remaining adrift in the cislunar environment. The structure measures about 12 meters in length, 4 meters in diameter, and has an estimated mass of about 4,000 kilograms.

Orbital calculations conducted by astronomer Bill Grey and subsequent high-fidelity physical simulations describe the dynamics of the event. The metallic cylinder will strike the ground at a speed of approximately 8,750 km/h. Since it is a hollow aluminum body and not a dense asteroid, the object will crumple instantly upon impact without penetrating deeply. The collision will generate a new crater ranging from 20 to 30 meters wide, lifting a large plume of dust up to several kilometers in altitude.

Researchers intend to seize the opportunity to measure the optical flash generated at the moment of contact and study the evolution of the ejecta plume. The event will serve to test the effectiveness of impact localization models on the surface, a fundamental step for calibrating future seismic sensor networks intended for the Moon. The analysis will also provide valuable data on dust behavior and assessing threats from space debris.

The event will take place on the visible side of the Moon, allowing data collection by both major professional observatories and amateur astronomers equipped with suitable gear. High-speed cameras capable of capturing ultra-high frame rate videos will be needed to record the sequence. Although the exact brightness of the initial flash remains uncertain, the coordination of observations represents a rare opportunity to study a high-velocity impact with known mass, trajectory, and composition.