The PC Crisis is Worse Than Expected: Sales Decline Exceeds Estimates
The PC Crisis is Worse Than Expected: Sales Decline Exceeds Estimates
The PC market in the United States opened 2026 with results below expectations. According to the latest estimates released by Omdia, in the first quarter of the year, shipments reached 15.8 million units, representing a 7% contraction compared to the same period in 2025. This is the sharpest decline recorded since the third quarter of 2023.
Several factors underlie this drop, but the main one pertains to the increasing demand for components destined for artificial intelligence systems. The investments by large tech companies and those engaged in AI development are putting strong pressure on the supply chain. As a result, prices, especially for memory and storage, are considered unacceptable by many users.
Omdia also highlights that the positive effect generated by the upgrade cycle to Windows 11 has now worn off for much of the consumer market, while the stockpiling linked to duties imposed in the United States in 2025 is no longer a decisive element.
The difficulties are particularly evident in the entry-level PC segment. Systems priced below $500 have seen a 18.7% year-over-year decrease in shipments. According to analysts, the rising costs of memory and storage devices have significantly reduced the profit margins for this product tier, making them less competitive from the customers' perspective and less sustainable for manufacturers to continue producing.
Omdia forecasts that the market will continue to show weakness in the coming quarters. The research firm estimates an overall contraction in shipments of 14.4% throughout 2026 compared to 2025.
Senior analyst Scott Braverman notes that the consumer sector has experienced a more pronounced decline compared to the corporate sector. Shipments destined for individuals decreased by 9.5%, while the commercial segment limited the drop to 5%. Companies continue to renew systems to complete the transition to Windows 11 and, in some cases, advance purchases to safeguard against further price increases.
Even sectors with tighter budgets, such as public administration and education, have recorded a contraction greater than the business market average. Omdia believes these areas will continue to face challenges until the end of 2026, while a significant recovery may arrive in 2027.
The competitive landscape shows significant differences among the main manufacturers. HP recorded the worst result among the big brands, with shipments down 21.6%, thereby losing its position as the leading manufacturer in the United States, ending with a market share of 20.5%.
Dell took the lead, being the only major manufacturer to gain growth, albeit modest, at 1.1%, reaching a market share of 25% in the US. Lenovo also closed the quarter in positive territory with a 1.2% increase and a market share of 20%.
Negative results were also seen for Apple, which recorded a decline of 1.6%, while Acer marked a drop of 5.4%. Smaller manufacturers, on the other hand, faced a decrease of 13.1%, a situation Omdia attributes to the lower ability to negotiate component procurement costs during a time characterized by high prices.