E-commerce Growth in Italy: By 2030 it Could Surpass Physical Sales. Visa Study
In Italy, online sales could surpass those made through physical channels in the next 4 years. This data emerges from the research by Visa titled The Trust Challenge in Digital Commerce, commissioned to Nomisma and based on a sample of 1,000 adults aged between 18 and 70. It is important to clarify one aspect: as specified in the analysis, "digital commerce includes not only typical transactions on e-commerce sites, but also operations carried out via digital tools such as home banking, banking apps, or online transfers when used to pay for goods and services".
E-commerce Purchases: The Growing Role of Artificial Intelligence
26% of Italians have made the majority of their purchases online, and an additional 29% shop equally between physical and digital channels, with 35% of those under 29 buying online at least once a week. The estimated growth in spending could bring Italian households’ expenditure to 796 billion euros by 2030, with an 18% increase.
According to Visa's research, AI is having a significant impact on online sales. This technology is indeed used both for work activities (47% of the sample) and in private matters (75%). It is no surprise that young people are the most enthusiastic: in the under 29 demographic, it is used by 94% of respondents.
In the realm of online purchases, it is not utilized to delegate purchases to agents or chatbots, but rather to search for information on products and services (41%), compare alternatives (33%), and seek advice (23%). Furthermore, 56% state that they will increase their use of AI for purchases by 2030, while among those over 65, 10% will start using it within the same period.
AI and Online Purchases: The Security Knot
Although the adoption of AI is also growing to simplify online purchasing, users are aware of the potential risks associated with this technology. For merchants, this means they must pay particular attention to the security of online transactions to gain customer trust.
In particular, it will be important to offer buyers appropriate authentication tools, which are essential for 63% of the sample, and real-time notifications via SMS, email, or smartphone alerts (a solution requested by 52% of respondents).
"Digital payments represent a consolidated purchasing method for Italians, increasingly central in the daily habits of consumers," explains Stefano M. Stoppani, Country Manager of Visa Italy. "Today, the prospect of achieving a balance between physical and digital commerce by 2030 is concrete, and this transformation presents a strategic opportunity, especially for Italian companies, which are called to accelerate their digitalization paths to remain competitive. In this context, Visa has already enabled over 1 million SMEs in the last three years, also contributing to making the payment system increasingly accessible and secure."
Stoppani continues: "The growth of digital commerce will depend not only on technological evolution but, above all, on the capacity of the entire ecosystem to build and strengthen consumer trust. Security and reliability have become decisive levers for the expansion of the digital market. For this reason, over the last ten years we have invested 3 billion dollars solely in AI and data infrastructure. This means not only improving the shopping experience but creating the conditions to support the future growth of digital commerce and agency in the world and in Italy."
"The increasing attention to the risk of fraud does not represent a brake on the development of digital payments but a factor that drives its evolution. Consumers today demand greater security and protection, steering the market towards increasingly advanced solutions. One in three Italians among the respondents is fully aware of the possibility of encountering fraud while also recognizing how AI can contribute to making threats more sophisticated, thereby strengthening the need for more advanced defense tools. In this scenario, trust is not just an accessory element but the true enabling condition for the growth of digital, to be built through increasingly effective security systems and continuous investment in user information and education," comments Ersilia Di Tullio, Head of Strategic Advisory at Nomisma.