PC Market in Deep Crisis According to IDC: A Record Crash Expected in 2026

The PC market is bracing for a harsh awakening in 2026. According to the latest estimates from IDC, global shipments are expected to contract by 11.3% over the entire year, with a staggering 20% year-on-year collapse predicted for the fourth quarter.

Analysts warn that the worst is yet to come, identifying the severe shortage of RAM as the main factor behind this crisis. The shortage is driving computer prices upward, with hikes reaching $500 for top-tier Surface models compared to their launch prices.

This bottleneck is largely attributable to the explosion of generative artificial intelligence. AI data centers will absorb as much as 70% of the entire production of high-end DRAM during the year. While giants like Apple can partially shield themselves thanks to enormous preventive component stockpiles, even industry leaders will ultimately feel the impact of the situation.

Meanwhile, manufacturers are forced to take cover by reintroducing downsized configurations to the market: a striking example is the Surface Laptop, which is back on offer in variants with only 8GB of RAM to mitigate the impact of pricing.

The MacBook Neo Effect and the Response of the Windows Ecosystem

In this complex scenario, IDC identifies the MacBook Neo as a true wildcard. Apple's new laptop has even outsold the MacBook Air since the first quarter of its launch, forcing Windows PC manufacturers to reconsider their strategies. As confirmed by analysts, Apple's competitive pressure is pushing vendors to respond by combining new silicon, more efficient Microsoft operating systems, and aggressive promotions.

The defense of budget laptops will also rely on the upcoming Intel Wildcat Lake chips, designed to power future low-cost devices from Honor, ASUS, and HP.

However, the competitive push will not be sufficient to reverse the trend. IDC estimates that average selling prices (ASP) will still rise by 17% in 2026. Even if memory production capacity increases over the next two years, it is unlikely that prices will return to 2025 levels. With a memory crisis likely to persist at least until the end of 2027, the era of low-cost laptops seems set to experience a sharp halt.