DDR6 Begins Pilot Production, But Can We Really Afford It?

The unofficial start of the DDR6 memory era has arrived: according to some sources in South Korea, companies like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have already ordered substrates, even though the standard has yet to be validated by JEDEC. The news was shared by The Elec, a fairly reliable South Korean newspaper.

In reality, as colleagues point out, this is not entirely unexpected news. Memory manufacturers typically prepare for mass production well in advance, by about two years. Considering the expected launch between 2028 and 2029, these timelines are consistent with previous generations. It won’t be definitive solutions but simple prototypes to finalize the project once specifications like memory thickness, operating voltage, substrate structure, or routing are confirmed.

In terms of performance, DDR6 promises a significant increase compared to DDR5. The initial speed is projected to start at 8,800 MT/s, but the ultimate goal is to reach 17,600 MT/s, a value that represents almost double the current theoretical limit of DDR5 memories. The technical progress is also due to the introduction of a new 4x24-bit architecture, which is quite different from the current 2x32-bit scheme of DDR5.

This change requires a complete rethink of signal integrity, a key element when operating at such high frequencies. For this reason, the industry is increasingly interested in CAMM2 technology, which is considered more suitable than traditional DIMMs for managing higher speeds and increasingly complex physical limits.

The first platforms to receive DDR6 are expected to be the servers, a segment where the demand for bandwidth and capacity quickly justifies the high initial costs. Subsequently, DDR6 memory would also be extended to the consumer market, although in the initial phase, costs might be prohibitive.

The price remains the central issue to resolve. Certainly, those who upgraded their platform in 2021-2022 will remember the prices of DDR5 memories at their debut with Intel's Alder Lake platforms. Prices for the new standard easily surpassed double that of equivalent DDR4. Only later did the cost reach a “normal” level for the consumer market.

At that time, however, there were no particular circumstances like the current ones, where memory demand is at unprecedented levels and availability is extremely limited. Of course, there is still time before the arrival of DDR6, and the current crisis has demonstrated how quickly market dynamics can change. However, it is reasonable to predict that the cost will be high for a period much longer than that which characterized DDR5.