Smartphone Market: Samsung and Apple on the Rise, but Inflation is Worrisome

The global smartphone market closed the first quarter of 2026 with a total volume of 298.5 million units shipped, marking a 1% increase compared to the same period the previous year. This result, which surpassed initial industry expectations, does not reflect a true state of health in consumer demand, but rather a defensive maneuver by major manufacturers.

Vendors have indeed implemented massive front-loading operations, accelerating shipments to the sales channel to anticipate the impending rise in costs of memory and key components. This push from the supply side has created a macroeconomic paradox: while warehouses are filling up, the discretionary budgets of households continue to be compressed by persistent inflation, extending device replacement cycles.

Samsung and Apple Dominate the Premium Segments

Samsung has reclaimed global leadership with 65.4 million units shipped, growing 8% year-on-year. The resilience of the Korean giant rests on two pillars: on one hand, the strength of the Galaxy A series in emerging markets, and on the other, the excellent reception of the Galaxy S26 range in the premium segment.

At the same time, Apple recorded a performance above the overall market average, with 60.4 million iPhones shipped (+10% YoY). The main driving force is the iPhone 17 series, with the iPhone 17e model successfully debuting in operator-led markets like the European Union and Japan. Particularly noteworthy is the figure from mainland China, where the Pro and Pro Max versions saw a 42% jump compared to the previous generation.

In stark contrast to the market leaders, Xiaomi faced the most significant decline among the top five manufacturers, with a contraction of 19% and 33.8 million units shipped. The vulnerability of the Chinese brand is linked to its strong exposure in the sub-$200 segment, where profit margins are extremely thin. Rising costs of DRAM and storage have hit this price range hard, forcing the vendor to manage complex margin pressures that have inevitably affected volumes.

Other Chinese manufacturers like OPPO (including realme and OnePlus) and vivo also recorded declines of 6% and 7%, respectively, reflecting weaker sell-through after aggressive channel filling at the end of 2025.

Conversely, HONOR stands out, with 19.2 million units shipped (+19%), making it the fastest-growing brand in the top 10, thanks to international expansion that has seen it double its volumes in the Middle East and Africa.

Cautious Outlook for the Second Half of the Year

Forecasts for the second half of the year urge caution. Omdia highlights that the current imbalance between sell-in and sell-out will lead to a forced correction during the second quarter and into the remainder of 2026. The buildup of excess inventory will need to be cleared in a context of weakened demand, where the cumulative effect of inflation on real incomes will become fully visible.

Supply chain pressures, particularly concerning memory, will remain a critical factor for at least the next two years. For manufacturers, the priority will shift from pure volume to strict inventory management and margin protection, with a real risk that shipments in the second half of 2026 may need to be scaled back to align with increasingly selective consumer demand.