The Return of Blue Origin New Glenn's Second Stage Will Generate Debris That Could Reach the Ground

Yesterday afternoon (Italian time), the third mission of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket was launched. As we previously reported, although the launch and recovery of the first stage "Never Tell Me The Odds" occurred correctly, a problem with the second stage GS-2 resulted in the AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 7 satellite being inserted into a lower orbit than planned. The company has already announced that, despite having control of the satellite, it will be deorbited because the Hall effect thrusters do not provide enough thrust to reach the correct parameters.

— Dave Limp (@davill) April 19, 2026

The failure encountered during the NG-3 mission is attributed to the second stage of Blue Origin's rocket. This marks the second failure of this type of unit, following what was seen during mission NG-1, when the second stage, although completing the launch, subsequently experienced an anomaly that generated a debris cloud. However, another issue arises now: the re-entry of the second stage.

The Re-entry of Blue Origin New Glenn's Second Stage

In the past, we have reported on rocket stages that have re-entered the atmosphere uncontrollably without causing significant damage or casualties, as far as is known. Among the most important media cases were those related to Long March 5B rockets launched by the Chinese CASC to deploy modules for the Tiangong space station.

In the case of Blue Origin New Glenn's second stage, we find ourselves facing a similar situation. This part of the rocket will no longer be controllable by the company (which cannot execute a deorbit burn) and is in a low orbit that experiences significant atmospheric drag. Initial estimates indicate a possible re-entry in about five days, although the timing is uncertain.

It must be considered that the second stage of this vehicle is particularly large. Its mass, without propellant, is about 25 tons, while the dimensions are approximately 25 x 7 meters (similar features to a Long March 5B upper stage). All locations that are at a latitude of 36.11° (north and south, including southern Italy) are at risk.

As with other re-entries of space rockets and satellites, it should be noted that many of the areas where impacts could occur are in open sea or uninhabited. However, there is a low risk, but not zero, that the re-entry could occur over populated areas. Since it is not a controlled re-entry, the company will not be able to choose the best trajectory.

Most of the structures of GS-2 (Glenn Stage 2) are expected to disintegrate when they enter the denser layers of the atmosphere; however, some components may resist the heat and reach the surface. It is expected that spherical objects like tanks, Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV), or parts with dimensions of about 1.5 meters could survive and make it to the ground. As stated, the odds remain low, and it is unlikely there will be consequences for people, but it is an important signal for both Blue Origin and authorities to improve the management of such events globally.