AI Will Drastically Reduce Wage Labor. According to MIT, $1.2 Trillion in Salaries Will Disappear
The first quarter of 2026 has just closed, but the numbers in the technology sector are already concerning: according to a report by Nikkei Asia, 78,557 jobs were eliminated between January and April, with over 76% of the cuts concentrated in the United States. A significant share, amounting to 47.9% (37,638 positions), is linked to the increasing spread of artificial intelligence and process automation.
Despite these figures, the direct link between AI adoption and workforce reduction does not yet appear to be fully defined. According to various internal analyses in the sector, many companies are still not reporting concrete benefits in terms of productivity gains, a factor that raises doubts about the actual role of technology in recent layoffs.
According to Dario Amodei and Jim Farley, respectively the CEOs of Anthropic and Ford, technology will cut at least half of all entry-level jobs in the United States. Of course, by technology, they mean artificial intelligence, which, thanks to agent-based AI, can optimize the work of the lowest levels at a significantly lower cost compared to human employees.
In the meantime, the sector continues to register significant interventions. Some large companies have already made substantial cuts, reallocating resources towards data centers and AI infrastructure, a sign of a structural transformation actually underway. However, even worse simulations have emerged: those conducted by the MIT indicate that artificial intelligence could replace up to 12% of the workforce in the United States, with an estimated economic impact of about $1.2 trillion less in salaries.
On the other hand, during the India AI Impact Summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discussed "AI washing," a trend that has recently emerged to attribute business decisions tied to inefficiencies or downsizing to artificial intelligence. From Altman's perspective, AI is merely a pretext for a significant portion of layoffs that would have occurred regardless.
On one hand, there are academic studies signaling a reduction in demand for entry-level roles, especially in areas like programming and customer service. On the other hand, however, opposing signals are emerging: some companies have increased their junior hiring, recognizing that AI still requires human oversight and specific skills.
A central element is the risk of interrupting internal training. The reduction of entry positions can create a gap in the creation of intermediate and managerial roles, with medium-term effects on organizational sustainability.
In the current context, many businesses are choosing a hybrid approach. Alongside the development of custom AI agents, they maintain a strong focus on employee retraining programs, aiming to integrate new technologies into operational flows without drastically reducing the workforce.
In conclusion, the transformation of the technology industry is already underway, but the outcome remains unpredictable. While it is true that AI represents an excellent tool for supporting basic roles and repetitive tasks, it is also true that it limits the training of the future managerial class. Some believe that one day AI will be able to fill managerial roles as well, but the outcome is by no means certain.