Confirmed Delay of Russian Robotic Missions to the Moon, Roscosmos Continues to Face Problems

In recent days, we reported how pad 31/6 at the Baikonur cosmodrome has been restored with a first test carried out thanks to the launch of the Progress MS-33 mission. However, the good news for the Russian aerospace division is overshadowed by American successes due to the Artemis II mission, and the problems in developing robotic missions to the Moon by Roscosmos have been confirmed.

In January, there was talk of the possibility of postponing some missions of the Luna program, and confirmation has arrived in recent days, while a U.S. (and Canadian) crew performed a close flyby of the natural satellite. According to Sergey Chernyshev (Vice President of the Russian Academy of Sciences), the Russian lunar program is behind schedule.

Chernyshev stated that "within the framework of the federal project for scientific space research, it is possible to identify several key research areas. Key goals and objectives have been determined for each area. Thus, the lunar program will help keep Russia among the leading space powers by actively exploring the Moon, providing new knowledge and technologies for lunar exploration, and ultimately enabling the creation of sovereign Russian territories on the Moon's surface."

After the failure of Luna-25 in the second half of 2023, Roscosmos is trying to optimize its limited budget to complete several operations, resulting in delays. Reportedly, Luna-29 could now be launched in 2032, Luna-30 would take off in 2034, and Luna-28 would instead be launched in 2036 (this is not a mistake; this mission will be postponed after the others) due to the complexity of the operations, which include bringing lunar soil to Earth.

In general, priority will be given to the Luna-26 orbiter, although its launch continues to slip, and the takeoff is currently expected for late 2028 (although it will likely be launched in 2029 at the earliest). Following that, the two twin lunar landers, Luna-27A and Luna-27B, will launch a year apart.

It is essential to remember that by that time, the Chinese and Americans could be on the Moon's surface with human crews starting the construction of permanent lunar bases, marking a turning point in the history of space exploration by establishing a sustainable lunar economy over time, also with the help of private companies.

The Russian space agency, on the other hand, may gradually revise its plans, despite having assistance from CNSA, which could reduce overall costs while concurrently diminishing the "prestige" of having completed lunar missions without relying on external forces.

Roscosmos and affiliated companies have already announced several delays, such as that of the reusable space rocket Amur (which will not fly before 2030) and Soyuz-5, which was supposed to debut in recent weeks with a suborbital launch, while currently it is still unclear when it can debut, further postponing its actual operational capacity. The Start-1M space rocket, which was supposed to debut shortly, has also been postponed to 2027.

Russia and Roscosmos, however, appear more interested in maintaining a good launch cadence of military missions related to the Ministry of Defense, also thanks to the reliable Soyuz-2.1a/b vehicles that can continue their careers in view of retirement in the coming years.