Goodbye to the Myth of Solid-State Batteries? According to an Expert, the Share Would Remain Low for Many Years

Solid-state batteries are certainly the "next big thing" in the mobility sector; we have learned this after months, if not years, of research, press releases, test projects, and production efforts from various parts of the world. Many expect this technology to bring a quantum leap in the electric sector, thanks to increased energy density, which can offer several advantages. Larger batteries within the same weight and space, or even batteries with the same capacity as current technologies but significantly saving on space.

However, alongside enthusiastic estimates, there are much more moderate ones, like those from Professor Ouyang Minggao, cited by China News Weekly. Ouyang Minggao, an academic at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, has conducted research for years on battery systems and propulsion for alternative energy vehicles, so he speaks with considerable expertise.

Many Chinese car manufacturers claim to be ready to implement solid-state lithium cells, some by 2026, others starting in 2027, or even shortly after, in 2028. However, according to Ouyang, implementation does not mean adoption. All these dates, in fact, mix testing with pilot productions and other similar procedures, not far from actual production, but also not yet at effective large-scale operation. In short, there is some confusion.

According to the Chinese academic, before seeing electric cars, or even other vehicles, with solid-state batteries capable of delivering the much talked about 400 Wh/kg (or even 600 Wh/kg), several years could pass. A professor's estimate indicates a range between 5 and 10 years to reach only 1% market share.

In such a scenario, the importance of current technologies, especially variants like LFP or sodium ions, becomes more critical. These are safer and more economical, although not very high-performing in terms of energy density. Further research on these established technologies could lead to more useful improvements in the short and medium term.